Here is a brief (8:51) video on how the expected goals model works and why its important, from my favorite Youtube channel Football Daily.
Like many of my friends have told me, football cannot be condensed into just numbers, and there are several things that a player can do that aren’t valued correctly by the model. I agree with all this, and think that on top of expected goals, the eye test is one of the most important ways to progress in fantasy premier league. It’s remarkable the difference actually watching the games will have on your player selection, so take all these statistics with a grain of salt.
Also, I’d like to give a big shout-out to understat, from which I get all of my statistics. It’s truly an incredible resource, available completely free of charge.